Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT)

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What is EFFECT?

The Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) is an open and transparent modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a range of development scenarios. It focuses on sectors that contribute to and are expected to experience a rapid growth in emissions. The model was initially developed by the World Bank while working with the Government of India on an analysis of their national energy plan. EFFECT has since been used in eleven countries, including Brazil, Poland, Georgia, Macedonia, Nigeria, and Vietnam.

What Does EFFECT Do?

EFFECT forecasts GHG emissions for given development scenarios or policy choices. In addition to forecasting GHG Emissions, EFFECT enables consensus building among disparate government departments, and forecasts energy balances and amounts of energy generating/consuming assets in a country or sector. EFFECT also produces results for individual sectors such as road transport, agriculture, power, industry, household and non-residential sectors.

Download a presentation on EFFECT and other ESMAP low carbon development tools.

Informing Government Policy and World Bank Investments

  • India: EFFECT was used by disparate government departments working together as they developed a national low carbon development plan. The results highlighted the importance of regional electricity transmission and hydropower.  The World Bank subsequently prepared financing for India in both areas.
  • Poland: EFFECT analysis helped to facilitate the approval of a US$1.1B loan to Poland for renewable energy and energy efficiency work in June 2011. The EFFECT analysis concluded that good policy on energy efficiency and low cost renewable energy would make a substantial difference in keeping the cost of climate change mitigation low.
  • Georgia:  EFFECT was the key tool in the analysis of various green transportation interventions proposed to the government. The green transportation strategy was championed by the Ministry of the Economy & Sustainable Development as part of a drive towards lower fuel imports.
  • Nigeria: The Energy Commission of Nigeria created an EFFECT Modeling Group within its Energy Planning and Analysis Department to investigate generation options for a 30-year time horizon.

 What Training is Available for EFFECT?

A self-paced e-learning course is available through the World Bank Institute (WBI).  The course has several modules ranging from the basics of low carbon development to specific details on how to use EFFECT. Follow the instructions to self register and access the course using "EFFECT," as the enrollment key.

The WBI also offers facilitated, part-time, month-long courses during which a World Bank expert takes users through the course. For the next course, and space availability, please contact Pedzi Makumbe at for details.

ESMAP also offers 1-to-1 or 1-to-many training sessions to World Bank teams or organizations implementing EFFECT. These can be offered in person or via video depending on resource availability.  Please contact Pedzi Makumbe at for details.

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